A projection of Australia’s future fertility rates

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Estimates of Australia’s future population depend on assumptions about the future fertility rate. In this paper for the Centre for Population, Professor Peter McDonald analyses Australia’s past fertility trends and develops projections of Australia’s future fertility rates under a number of scenarios.

A projection of Australia's future fertility rates — September 2020.pdf 614kB

Download underlying data

Historical fertility rates

  • Centre for Population estimates of historical fertility rates by single year of age, for Australia and by state/territory, by financial year, measured by occurrence

Fertility rates historical 1981–82 to 2017–18 EXCEL 264kB

Fertility rates projections

  • Professor McDonald’s projections of future fertility rates for Australia and by state/territory for three scenarios

Fertility rates projected 2018–19 to 2031–32 EXCEL 284kB