2021 Population Statement

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Insights from the 2021 Population Statement

The 2021 Population Statement details the early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia’s population and projects its impact over the next decade.

Population growth over this period is forecast to increase from 0.3 per cent in 2021–22 to 1.4 per cent by 2024–25, before declining slightly to 1.2 per cent by 2031–32. 

Net overseas migration is forecast to fall from a net inflow of 193,000 in 2019–20 to a net outflow of 100,000 in 2020–21, and a net outflow of 41,000 in 2021–22.

The impact of COVID-19 is expected to vary across different parts of Australia. All states, except for the Northern Territory, are forecast to experience a drop in population growth in 2020–21 compared to 2019–20.

The impact of the pandemic is expected to be greater in capital cities, with population growth forecast to fall to -0.1 per cent in 2020–21 for capital cities. Population growth in rest-of-state areas is expected to fall to 0.5 per cent in 2020–21. However, capital cities are forecast to return to higher growth rates than rest-of-state areas from 2022–23 as restrictions are relaxed and overseas migration returns.

Melbourne is projected to be the fastest growing capital city from 2023–24 onwards, overtaking Sydney to become the nation’s largest city in 2029–30 at just over 5.9 million people.

Interactive population dashboards

Downloads

2021 Population Statement PDF 1.48 MB

2021 Population Statement DOCX 981 kB

Download underlying data

National projections, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • National population projections, including upside and downside net overseas migration scenarios detailed in the 2021 Population Statement. Includes population level, components of population growth, mortality and fertility assumptions and visa migration projections.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - National XLSX 183 kB

State and territory projections, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • State and territory population projections for the 2021 Population Statement. Includes population level and components of population growth.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - State and Territory XLSX 182 kB

Capital city and rest-of-state projections, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • Capital city and rest-of-state population projections for the 2021 Population Statement. Includes population level and components of population growth.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - GCCSA XLSX 189 kB

Population and components, tidy file, 2019-20 to 2030-31

  • Contains all national, state and territory and capital city and rest-of-state population and component information in the 2021 Population Statement in a tidy format.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Projections Website Datafile XLSX 277 kB

National age and sex structure, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • National age and sex structure, including upside and downside net overseas migration scenarios detailed in the 2021 Population Statement.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - Age and Sex – National XLSX 245 kB

State and territory age and sex structure, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • State and territory population projections for the 2021 Population Statement by age and sex.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - Age and Sex - State and Territory XLSX 344 kB

Capital city and rest-of-state age and sex structure, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • Capital city and rest-of-state population projections for the 2021 Population Statement by age and sex.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Data Download - Age and Sex - GCCSA XLSX 468 kB

Age and sex structure, tidy file, 2020-21 to 2031-32

  • Contains all national, state and territory and capital city rest-of-state age and sex structures in the 2021 Population Statement in a tidy format.
  • Last updated: 20 December 2021

Population Statement Age Sex Structure Website Datafile XLSX 2.71 MB