Insights from the 2024 Population Statement
The 2024 Population Statement explores Australia’s population dynamics following the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Australia’s population is projected to grow from 27.1 million people in March 2024 to 31.3 million people by 2034–35.
Annual population growth is forecast to decline from 2.1 per cent in 2023–24 to 1.2 per cent by 2034–35 as net overseas migration moderates.
Net overseas migration peaked in 2022–23 and is declining. It is expected to continue to moderate. This will reflect a decline and subsequent stabilisation of arrivals, and a pick‑up in departures.
Australia’s fertility rate has been declining since the early 1960s, a pattern seen across advanced economies. The fertility rate is expected to remain at record lows in 2023–24 and 2024–25, due to shorter‑term factors, as well as the longer‑term social and economic changes behind the multi‑decade decline in fertility.
The states and territories, as well as capital cities and regional areas, are projected to gradually return to their pre‑pandemic population growth patterns. The combined population of capital cities is projected to continue to grow nearly twice as fast as rest‑of‑state areas through to 2034–35.